SOTU Blog - Real-Time Analysis of Bush's 2005 State of the Union Address

February 2, 2005

5:34 PST: I know, blogs are already on their way out, passé. But I’m bored to sobs by the thought of writing another dry post-analysis of yet another Bush speech. So, in an effort to liven things up, I’m going to write a SOTU blog, real time analysis of tonight’s speech. Hope you enjoy it.

Before the speech begins, I should give essential context. I will be watching the address on the local PBS affiliate here in Los Angeles. Why PBS? I’d like to say that it’s because I only watch public television but it’s really because I don’t have cable or satellite and am dependent on my rabbit ears for television reception. Right now, PBS has the least amount of “snow” (remember that word?) Actually, ABC’s not too bad tonight static-wise and their pundits are better fodder for derision and mockery. So, PBS for the speech itself and then a quick switch to ABC for the after party.

6:00 PST: Here we go. Jim Lehrer, looking dapper as usual. Shields and Brooks are ready and waiting. Gosh, I wonder what they will say? I do wish the news programs would get people who aren't so obviously predictable in their partisan remarks. LOL! Lehrer actually said "Laura Bush is up there sitting in the thing..." He meant "gallery", I think... Laura is, by the way, looking lovely in a beautiful cornflower blue suit. Okay, justices, cabinet, are all here. We're just waiting for the Prez. The ceremony is nice. We need rituals in such a relatively young country.

6:05 PST: Bush really does connect on a one-on-one level. His comfort level is obviously very high as he walks in and greets people. You can just tell he's charming the socks off everybody he talks to. Sustained applause... I'll keep a timer, 44 seconds first time... 35 seconds, second time.

6:09 PST: He begins... with a sure fire winner, a reference to a "free and sovereign Iraq."

6:10 PST: Does he look tired?

6:12 PST: He's starting with domestic policy, a distinct change from the Inaugural which dealt with foreign policy almost exclusively.

6:13 PST: Ooh, the Republicans aren't in lock step as they usually are. The standing ovation that greeted the "cutting deficit" line was sparse and delayed. I never noticed this before but Bush clasps his hands on the lectern and twidles his thumbs. His gestures are very limited. Another problem he has to deal with if he's ever going to be a really good public speaker. Everytime you create a wall in front of you by clasping your hands, you create another barrier between you and your audience. The lectern already is a huge obstacle. Don't compound it by creating another and don't think we can't see your hands because they're behind the lectern.

6:16 PST: The health care line gets applause even before he finishes. Its clear what Congress wants but I wish they wouldn't interrupt his flow with their clapping and cheers. See my other commentaries. This is one of my pet peeves.

6:18. Yikes, he pronounced "nucular" again. Ethanol = renewable source of energy? ADM lobbyists are patting themselves on the back right now. Sorry, political remarks creeping in. I'll get back to pure rhetorical commentary now...

6:21 PST: He's begining to look a little more comfortable. He likes talking about Social Security, probably because he's been talking about it so much lately, he feels very comfortable and confident. He's in a bit of a sweet spot right now. Lesson: being prepared is the best prescription for good delivery!

6:24 PST: Cool! Heckling from the Democrats about his dire predictions regarding the future of social security. But Bush rallies. He's not rattled by it, in fact, he became more forceful.

6:26 PST: Any mention of our "children's future" is a fool proof way to get the entire chamber standing. Cheap trick but it works. I just noticed that the military guys in front never stand during the speech. That's cool. Classy and dignified.

6:28 PST: He's explaining his privitization plan for social security in very personal terms, "It's your money". Smart, we'll see if it works. And he's using the term "personal accounts". This is a blatant rhetorical battle that vividly proves the power of words. His opponents will use the term "private accounts." A subtle but powerful difference.

6:29 PST: Almost 10 minutes about social security. Wow.

6:31 PST: He did it. He came out in favor of  "defending the traditional institution of marriage". He's also using the term "culture of life" which he uses to great effect with pro-life factions to outline his medical policy, both advancing medicine and remaining opposed to stem cell research. Interesting juxtpostion. This is the "red meat" for the base that everyone talks about.

6:34 PST: The Republicans are not shy in expressing their support for certain portions of this speech. They should be careful. Magnaminity is the key when you have all the chips.

6:36 PST: I sometimes think Cheney forgets he's right behind the President. He's making weird faces... LOL! Bush notes that AIDS affects a disproportionate number of African American women. Gwen Ifill's impact continues!

6:39 PST: Here we go with foreign policy. 30 minutes in... No new arguments, here.

6:43 PST: Once again, his comfort with this part of the speech, freedom and all that, something he's articulated often, is apparent.

6:45 PST: Was that women behind the Afghani professor really wearing black fish-net tights?

6:46 PST: Poor Joe Biden! Jumped the gun on the applause and looked a little sheepish which was caught by the camera...

6:48 PST: Now the military guys are standing to applaud Bush's mention of freedom. I wonder if they have a "SOTU" manual which delineates when they can and can not stand.

6:50 PST: You cannot mention the Iraq election enough. It was an incredibly powerful event. It's getting lots of applause as it should. Good.

6:52 PST: It's just dumb awful luck that the overwhelming policy initiative of the Bush Administration concerns a country filled with people whose names Bush simply can NOT pronounce...

6:55 PST: Here's the money line: "We are standing firm in Iraq." Wow, a good simple explanation devoid of spin "We will not set an artificial timetable for withdrawl because that will just embolden the terrorists to think they can wait us out." (or something like that) Clear, simple, compelling. Bush needs to do more of this. The rhetorical spin is old. We are savvy and don't buy it anymore. But we will buy good simple arguments like this one.

6:59 PST: The obligatory letter. Except this one is from the mother of a marine killed in Iraq. Pretty brave. Ah, the mother and father are in the gallery. This is borderline. It is a fine tribute to the soldiers and sailors who gave their lives but some may think it is exploitative. The applause is sustained. The parents look like they are going to cry. Oh gosh, the Iraqi woman is now hugging the mother. Okay, it may be manipulative but its working. I'm getting teary eyed.

7:01 PST: He's quoting FDR. Good strategy. Co-opt the standard bearer of the opposition. Also, FDR was just a damn eloquent fellow.

7:02 PST: Conclusion. Total time: about 52 minutes.

Insta-Conclusion: Once again, Bush didn't do horribly. He's did fine, not terrific but fine. But this speech is going to get a lot of attention because of the "marine mom moment".

Other Commentaries
SOTU 2002
SOTU 2003
SOTU 2004

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